Gators face Redhawks in season-opener in Gainesville

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/01/2010 - Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The post Tim Tebow Era begins in Gainesville this weekend, as the fourth-ranked Florida Gators open up their 2010 season at home against the Miami-Ohio RedHawks.

Florida returns plenty of talent from a team that went 13-1 in 2009, but the squad will be under careful scrutiny to see if it can remain among the nation's elite without one of college football's all-time greats leading the way. The 13 wins last year marked the second straight season with that many victories, making Florida the first team to do that in FBS history. Despite a new leader under center, the bar is still set very high for Urban Meyer's squad in 2010 both in the SEC and the big picture as a whole.

The Miami-Ohio Redhawks would like nothing better than to make a statement in this game and pull off a monumental upset, following a 2009 campaign that saw the team manage just one win against 11 defeats. It was certainly not the debut new head coach Michael Haywood envisioned and the hope is that a veteran group is ready to make some noise in 2010.

Last year the RedHawks were a one-dimensional team and a lack of a ground game (119th nationally) cost the team more often than not. A more run-oriented offense is on tap for 2010, and a committee of tailbacks will likely be used. Thomas Merriweather is the veteran of the group and led the team with a mere 291 yards in 2009.

A strength of the team will be up front, where four of last year's five starters return. The offensive line will be charged with protecting sophomore QB Zac Dysert, who is regarded as one of the MAC's top signal-callers. Despite the team winning just one game, Dysert flourished as a freshman last year, throwing for over 2,600 yards. If the ground game fails to materialize again, Dysert will find a way to get the ball down the field to senior wideout Armand Robinson. Robinson will be joined in the receiving corps by junior Chris Givens, who missed most of last season due to injury.

Assistant coach Alex Wood has inherited a talented group of receivers and thinks Robinson's work habits in particular will help him be even better this season.

"He's a really good inside receiver, a slot receiver. That's been his forte. He worked hard this spring to add another dimension to his role as an outside receiver. Hopefully, he'll be able to play inside and outside."

As a result of the poor play on offense, the Miami-Ohio defense struggled as well, as the team surrendered 34.2 ppg (108th in the nation). The real weakness was against the run, where foes gashed Miami for a whopping 186.9 ypg.

Mike Johns and Austin Brown return to the front line, but a lot is expected of freshman end Mwnza Wamulumba (6-3, 246), who earned a starting position with a strong spring. The most dangerous player on this defense is middle linebacker Jerrell Wedge. Wedge, who led the MAC with 18.5 TFLs this past season, is a disruptive player. The junior will be flanked by sophomores Evan Harris and Luke Kelly. The defensive backfield has the most experience, as three of the four starters return, including senior safety Jordan Gafford. Brandon Stephens is the most experienced cornerback, but youngsters like sophomore D.J. Brown and freshman Dayonne Nunley will be instrumental as well.

The eyes of the college football world will gravitate to Florida quarterback John Brantley this season, as he tries to replace Tebow under center. At the SEC Media Days, Meyer was asked if he is concerned about the scrutiny that Brantley will face.

"If he was a freshman or sophomore, we'd give a lot of thought to that," said the coach. "We have a real clear understanding of what John Brantley can do."

While he didn't see the field much behind Tebow, Brantley did complete 75 percent of his limited passes, for 410 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He will be aided in 2010 by a number of playmakers on offense. Deonte Thompson had four receiving touchdowns a year ago and appears ready to take a step forward. As for Chris Rainey, a fellow junior, he is a true burner who is extremely versatile and will make the move to wide receiver after playing tailback. Listed as a tailback, Jeff Demps carried the ball 99 times for 745 yards and seven touchdowns last season, and he also possesses tremendous speed. With Rainey and Demps in the fold, Brantley can throw short passes and let his weapons do the rest. Three starters are back along the Florida offensive line, and while a couple of key cogs did depart, this unit should be among the strongest in the SEC, led by All-American candidate Mike Pouncey.

Florida has co-defensive coordinators heading into the 2010 season, and while that may seem a bit unorthodox, there is enough work to be done to keep both Chuck Heater and Teryl Austin busy. Six starters are gone from last season's stout defense that limited foes to a mere 12.4 ppg and 252.6 total ypg (fourth nationally in both categories). Clearly, this defense lost some stars, but the cupboard isn't exactly bare.

All-American candidate Ahmad Black, now a senior, is one of the nation's finest safeties. Fellow safety Will Hill will join Black in the secondary, as will cover corner Janoris Jenkins. Up front, the tackle position figures to be strong with Terron Sanders, Omar Hunter and Lawrence Marsh clogging the middle, although Sanders is listed as doubtful for the opener (knee). The key will be getting consistent pressure off the edges. The linebacking corps will miss All-American Brandon Spikes and it will be up to A.J. Jones, a senior, to spearhead the attack in the middle of the field.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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