AL Notebook: Cano finally starting to 'get it' with Yankees

Baseball Betting Lines

07/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't long ago that there were some people inside the New York Yankees organization who wanted to deal Robinson Cano.

Some felt he was too lazy in the field. Others didn't like his approach at the plate. His harshest critics noted that his poor starts were likely the result of being unprepared as the season started.

Not helping matters any was a lackadaisical approach to it all. It often looked as if Cano would rather be out at the clubs with his buddy Melky Cabrera than at second base for the most famous franchise in sports.

Things reached rock-bottom for Cano in Anaheim on an August Sunday in 2008. The Yankees were on the verge of being swept by the Angels and manager Joe Girardi called him out, basically saying he needed a better effort from Cano following a ground ball that got past him, leading to a blown save for Mariano Rivera.

A lot of people thought that may have been the final straw for the Yankees and Cano. Even with a strong second half, there were whispers that he was on the block, and that the big finish to the year only enhanced his trade value.

Cano heard the rumors and got the message loud and clear. Cano spent the offseason working with hitting coach Kevin Long and the work paid off, as he started 2009 red-hot, hitting .366 in April, or more than 100 points better than his 2008 start.

Cano had his finest all-around year as a pro last season, hitting .320 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI, while playing a magnificent second base for the World Series Champions. Still, though, there were skeptics. People pointed to his abysmal .207 average with runners in scoring position, that was even worse in similar situations with two outs (.204).

Again, Cano got the message and responded with one of his own.

Following another winter's worth of work with Long, there wasn't a better player in the American League through the first two months of the season than Robinson Cano. He's been the MVP of the best team in baseball in the first half of the year, and that's saying something given the wealth of talent on this team.

Cano hit a blistering .400 in April with eight home runs, coming through time and time again for the Yankees in every spot possible. He has hit .340 with RISP this season, while for the most part carrying a Yankees offense that up until recently was getting nothing from Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.

People have said that Cano is a batting champion waiting to happen. Often compared to seven-time hitting champion Rod Carew, Cano led the majors in batting for most of the first half. He is 10 points back of Texas' Josh Hamilton as we head into the break, but Cano has always been a second-half player. Don't be shocked if batting title No. 1 comes this year.

If that happens, I am not sure what negative point his critics will try to make this offseason. I am quite certain, though, that Cano will respond accordingly.

GIRARDI TABS TAMPA'S DAVID PRICE TO START

American League manager Joe Girardi named Tampa Bay lefty David Price as his starter for Tuesday night's Mid-Summer Classic, making the 24-year-old hurler the youngest pitcher to start the game since a 23-year-old Dwight Gooden took the ball for the National League in 1988.

"It's a definitely an honor," Price stated. "It hasn't set in yet. I'm very happy to be here."

The top overall pick in the 2007 draft, Price is 12-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 100 strikeouts this season for the Rays. He is one of six pitchers all-time under 25 years of age to reach 12 wins, an ERA below 2.50 and 100 strikeouts heading into the All-Star break, and the first in 25 years since Roger Clemens did so in 1986 (15-2, 2.48 ERA, 146 strikeouts).

He is also the youngest to be leading either the AL or NL in wins and ERA at the All-Star break since 23-year-old Scott Erickson with Minnesota in 1991 (12 wins, 1.83 ERA).

The lineup for the American League will open with Seattle right fielder Ichiro Suzuki, who will be followed by New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter and Detroit first baseman Miguel Cabrera, who is replacing the injured Justin Morneau of Minnesota.

Texas center fielder Josh Hamilton will bat cleanup, with Rangers slugger and former Angels star Vladimir Guerrero next as the designated hitter. Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria will hit sixth, followed by Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano and Rays left fielder Carl Crawford.

"You look at numbers and how guys have performed," said Girardi when asked how he constructed his lineup. "We have quality RBI guys in the middle of the lineup and speed at the top and bottom."

ADRIAN BELTRE REPLACED BY MICHAEL YOUNG?

It seemed like a innocent comment at the time when Girardi announced that Boston third baseman Adrian Beltre would be replaced on the roster by Texas' Michael Young.

The only problem was that it appears to be news to Beltre, who is dealing with a hamstring issue. I am guessing Beltre will try to give it a go and see how Tuesday's workout goes. Should he not be able to play, I imagine Young would get the nod.

By the way if Beltre does in fact sit the game out, he would be the fourth of the six Red Sox All-Stars replaced because of injury with lefty Jon Lester and designated hitter David Ortiz ranking as the only ones left to suit up.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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